Trump’s posturing on Pakistan is a gift to China
Dawn 8 September
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In one speech, Trump has undone years of careful diplomacy in the region. The bonds are now so close they pose a threat to Indian and US interests. China supplies arms and funds to Pakistan, partly to keep tensions high on its border with India. With India distracted, China can then grow unchallenged in the region. Keeping Pakistan on side and preventing China from becoming its primary patron is thus crucial for the US.
The military in Pakistan has used the threat of India as a bogeyman to get a large slice of the budget and resist civilian meddling. Its influence has grown so large that some local television stations have instituted a second buffer in live broadcasts to mute any criticism of the army.
A diplomatic crisis illustrates this: No such call would ever go out to Beijing, because it has no soft spot for democracy. The likelihood of a military coup in Pakistan would increase substantially in the absence of a strong benefactor supporting democracy. What is more, any hint that India is expanding activities in Afghanistan — militarily or otherwise — would again allow the Pakistani army to raise the spectre of Indian encirclement and tilt the civil-military balance in its favour.
There is a reason diplomacy is generally bereft of loud posturing. It is detrimental when dealing with complex issues, like an ally that is both wayward and critical. Barack Obama understood this as US president, and pressed Pakistan more subtly.
Trump, as usual, has failed to grasp any nuance, choosing posturing over real effective diplomacy.